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Is Solar Worth It in California in 2026? The Honest Math

The 30% homeowner tax credit is gone. The credit you get for sending power back to the grid got cut by about 75%. And half the internet will tell you solar in California is dead.

By Michael Cantellano · Victorville, CA · November 3, 2026

I’ve worked in California solar for 13 years, so here’s my honest answer. For some homes, solar is still one of the best money moves you can make in 2026. For others, it only makes sense if you look at it a different way.

By the end of this post, you’ll know which one you are, whether you’re with PG&E, SCE or SDG&E.

What changed in 2026

Three things got worse, and anyone who tells you nothing changed is selling you something.

1. Net metering changed. If your solar application went in after April 14, 2023, you’re on what everyone calls NEM 3.0. The power your panels send back to the grid now earns about 5 to 8 cents per kilowatt-hour on average. It used to be close to full retail. That’s why most new systems need a battery now: you store your daytime power and use it at night, instead of selling it for pennies.

2. The homeowner tax credit ended. On December 31, 2025, the 30% federal credit for people who buy solar went to zero. It didn’t phase down. It just stopped.

3. A new fixed charge showed up. All three big electric utility companies added a Base Services Charge to home bills. For most homes it’s about 24 dollars a month, and solar credits can’t cancel it. So nobody should promise you a zero-dollar bill.

What didn’t change

California power is still some of the most expensive in the country.

On the standard time-of-use plans, summer power between 4 and 9 PM costs about 52 to 68 cents per kilowatt-hour, depending on your electric utility company.

Electric utility companySummer 4 to 9 PM price (about)
PG&E (E-TOU-C)52 cents
SCE (TOU-D-4-9PM, weekdays)58 cents
SDG&E (TOU-DR1)68 cents

And over roughly the last ten years, average home electric rates went up about 69% at PG&E, 97% at SDG&E and 101% at SCE, according to the CPUC’s Public Advocates Office.

To be fair, rates have been close to flat for the last three years, and nobody can promise where they go next. But every kilowatt-hour you make and use yourself is one you don’t buy at those prices. That part of solar still works the way it always has.

The 5-question test I use with every homeowner

1. Is your electric bill over about 120 dollars a month?

If it is, solar can usually save you real money from the first month. If it’s under that, the monthly savings are usually small, so solar isn’t really a savings decision for you. It’s an ownership decision. And for some people that’s exactly the point: they’d rather put their money toward owning their power, especially before retirement.

2. Do you own your home, and are you staying put for at least the next few months?

If your house is on the market right now, the timing doesn’t work. Installing takes time.

3. Does your roof get good sun?

Heavy shade kills production. Most California homes do fine. The roof also gets inspected before anything is installed. If it needs work, you get three choices: cancel, have the roof done as part of the project, or use your own roofer and pause until it’s done.

4. Is the last 12 months how you’ll use power going forward?

Your system gets designed from your past usage, so think ahead. An electric car, a pool, another AC unit or more people in the house all change what you need. If it’s coming soon, design for it now.

5. Will you qualify?

For the zero-down option, you’ll typically need a credit score around 650 or higher, or a co-signer.

If you said yes to all five, solar is very likely worth a serious look. If your bill is under 120 dollars, it comes down to one question: do you want to own your power?

How you pay for it matters as much as whether you get it

Buying it outright. You own the system from day one, but you pay full price, and in 2026 there’s no homeowner credit to take any of it back. That’s why I don’t lead with it.

A zero-down lease (or PPA). A company owns, installs, maintains and insures the system on your roof, and you put nothing down. You typically start 10 to 30 percent below what you pay your electric utility company today. The trade-off is that the payment usually goes up a set amount each year, often 3.5%. In rare cases, mostly homes on CARE, FERA or a medical baseline discount, it might only match what you pay now. I’ll tell you if that’s you.

A prepaid lease. I call it the new way to own solar. Instead of a monthly lease payment, you pay for it upfront, and most people finance that. There’s no yearly escalator. And with one I offer, ownership transfers to you after year five. This one isn’t about beating today’s bill. It’s about putting what you’d pay the electric utility company toward owning your power instead.

Whichever way you go, know the term, how the price works and what happens if you sell your home. Get all of it in writing.

One note for LADWP and other city-run electric company customers: you’re not on NEM 3.0, and your exports are still credited close to retail, so the math works differently. A battery is optional for you. The same questions above still apply.

So, is solar worth it in California?

If your bill is over about 120 dollars, you get good sun, you’re staying in your home, and you pay for it the right way, usually yes. If your bill is lower, it can still be worth it if owning your power matters to you.

The only way to know for your house is to run the math on your real usage.

Want me to run your numbers?

Book a free bill review with me. Watch the short video on that page, then pick a time for a Google Meet. After you book, you’ll get a secure link to share your real 12 months of usage. If you don’t have an online account with your electric utility company yet, set one up first. I’ll ask about your panel and roof up front, so there are no surprises later. Then I’ll show you a zero-down lease and a prepaid lease side by side, spelled out in writing.

And if solar doesn’t make sense for your home, I’ll tell you that too.

Book My Free Bill Review

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About the author: Michael Cantellano has worked in California residential solar for 13+ years. He’s personally helped hundreds of California families, and 2,200+ with the teams he led. He runs Bright Solar Power from Victorville, CA, and the YouTube channel Michael Can Tell (@michaelcantellsolar). CSLB Home Improvement Salesperson Reg. #95787; installation is done by a licensed installation partner.

Zero-down lease/PPA savings typically 10-30% below your electric utility company rate; results vary and are not guaranteed. Not tax or legal advice. Rates checked November 2026.

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